Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 5.9 | 11.8% | 62 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 12.4 | 20.8% | 109 | 0.8% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 9.4 | 15.4% | 81 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 9.6 | 16.8% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 7.4 | 12% | 63 | 0.6% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.1 | 10.5% | 55 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5.0 | 7.4% | 39 | 0.34% |
| 70+ | 10 | 3.9 | 5.3% | 28 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 70 | 59.7 | 100% | 525 | 0.5% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 14151 | 59682 | 498 | 119 | 475 |
| Oct 01 | 14236 | 59843 | 499 | 119 | 485 |
| Oct 02 | 14293 | 60009 | 500 | 119 | 510 |
| Oct 03 | 14358 | 60158 | 500 | 119 | 527 |
| Oct 04 | 14359 | 60232 | 501 | 119 | 469 |
| Oct 05 | 14450 | 60318 | 502 | 120 | 501 |
| Oct 06 | 14520 | 60428 | 504 | 121 | 525 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 9585 | 35214 | 385 | 109 | 576 |
| Oct 01 | 9651 | 35293 | 386 | 109 | 589 |
| Oct 02 | 9725 | 35362 | 390 | 110 | 634 |
| Oct 03 | 9751 | 35412 | 392 | 111 | 582 |
| Oct 04 | 9778 | 35454 | 395 | 111 | 534 |
| Oct 05 | 9843 | 35525 | 399 | 111 | 520 |
| Oct 06 | 9872 | 35560 | 401 | 112 | 542 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 5.1 | 10% | 54 | 0.7% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 9.7 | 20.7% | 112 | 1.33% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 5.4 | 10.3% | 56 | 0.79% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 7.3 | 14.6% | 79 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 6.1 | 13.5% | 73 | 0.94% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 6.1 | 11.8% | 64 | 0.66% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4.1 | 7.7% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 0 | 6.0 | 11.4% | 62 | 0.87% |
| All ages | 29 | 50.0 | 100% | 542 | 0.84% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 7371 | 23373 | 359 | 85 | 445 |
| Oct 01 | 7414 | 23419 | 360 | 85 | 430 |
| Oct 02 | 7456 | 23476 | 361 | 85 | 438 |
| Oct 03 | 7486 | 23513 | 362 | 85 | 409 |
| Oct 04 | 7497 | 23540 | 364 | 85 | 367 |
| Oct 05 | 7526 | 23595 | 369 | 86 | 363 |
| Oct 06 | 7573 | 23640 | 372 | 86 | 358 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 3.4 | 8.9% | 32 | 0.59% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 8.3 | 19.8% | 71 | 1.31% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 5.6 | 12.8% | 46 | 1.02% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 4.0 | 12.6% | 45 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.6 | 14.2% | 51 | 1.02% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.9 | 11.2% | 40 | 0.59% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.9 | 9.2% | 33 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 6 | 4.4 | 11.2% | 40 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 47 | 40.0 | 100% | 358 | 0.79% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 15201 | 68136 | 598 | 102 | 553 |
| Oct 01 | 15241 | 68284 | 599 | 103 | 550 |
| Oct 02 | 15303 | 68468 | 600 | 103 | 572 |
| Oct 03 | 15368 | 68601 | 600 | 103 | 574 |
| Oct 04 | 15404 | 68678 | 600 | 103 | 534 |
| Oct 05 | 15463 | 68837 | 612 | 103 | 535 |
| Oct 06 | 15505 | 68970 | 616 | 103 | 549 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 6.1 | 12% | 66 | 0.56% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 9.9 | 18.2% | 100 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 7.9 | 13.8% | 76 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 6.7 | 12.6% | 69 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 6.4 | 10.9% | 60 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.9 | 13.5% | 74 | 0.52% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 6.0 | 11.1% | 61 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.4 | 7.8% | 43 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 42 | 54.3 | 100% | 549 | 0.46% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 52963 | 406129 | 1841 | 333 | 1421 |
| Oct 01 | 53166 | 407153 | 1848 | 333 | 1322 |
| Oct 02 | 53319 | 408171 | 1850 | 334 | 1373 |
| Oct 03 | 53388 | 408542 | 1851 | 334 | 1281 |
| Oct 04 | 53489 | 409168 | 1852 | 334 | 1233 |
| Oct 05 | 53729 | 409850 | 1861 | 335 | 1316 |
| Oct 06 | 53893 | 410816 | 1865 | 335 | 1425 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 21 | 20.9 | 13% | 185 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 31 | 24.7 | 16.5% | 235 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 24.0 | 16.2% | 231 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 24.3 | 16.8% | 239 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 20.4 | 15.1% | 215 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 13.4 | 8.7% | 124 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 12.9 | 7.4% | 106 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 9 | 9.4 | 6.3% | 90 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 164 | 150.0 | 100% | 1425 | 0.26% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 727007 | 3362504 | 38937 | 7997 | 26248 |
| Oct 01 | 730379 | 3370695 | 39067 | 8009 | 25945 |
| Oct 02 | 733101 | 3378834 | 39174 | 8024 | 26017 |
| Oct 03 | 734804 | 3384250 | 39228 | 8026 | 24659 |
| Oct 04 | 736385 | 3388480 | 39307 | 8041 | 23558 |
| Oct 05 | 740559 | 3394670 | 39552 | 8064 | 24869 |
| Oct 06 | 742832 | 3402027 | 39665 | 8073 | 25436 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 231 | 279.7 | 10.9% | 2767 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 399 | 482.3 | 19% | 4826 | 0.64% |
| 20-29 | 261 | 312.9 | 12% | 3054 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 327 | 387.4 | 15% | 3828 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 308 | 346.7 | 13.7% | 3478 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 265 | 308.0 | 11.6% | 2949 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 260 | 247.1 | 9.3% | 2359 | 0.31% |
| 70+ | 222 | 228.9 | 8.6% | 2175 | 0.34% |
| All ages | 2273 | 2593.0 | 100% | 25436 | 0.44% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7758"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges